Sunday, March 18, 2007

Yen Carry Trade

The stock market and Yen have been trading in locked oppsite steps in the past few weeks. See DJIA and JPY 3 months daily chart above (the JPY chart is in Yen per Dollar). Does this mean that the power of yen carry trade is in its full force? When the stock market advances, speculators borrow more yen, convert them into dollar and invest in the market, hence contributing to the depreciation of JPY; when the trend in stock market is reversed, they unwind their positions and repay the Yen debt, pushing JPY up. The carry trade schema is no more sustainable in the long term than US current account deficit. The reversal of a depreciating yen could pose serious threat to equity investors. Could subprime or the emerging market problems pull the trigger? There is no way to know...